Feb. 1st, 2003
Can't say I'm *that* surprised...
Feb. 1st, 2003 11:24 am(deep breath)
Looking at the camera footage, there's a disturbance, separation of a large chunk, followed by turbulence and then everything coming apart. The breakup appears to follow a loss of flight controls, presumably due to the initial event. Lots of possibilities for that event. My leading guesses are the failure of a wing or vertical stabilizer due to fatigue (it is 20+ years old, after all... few cycles, but high-stress ones) or overheating (burn-through of the thermal protection tiles or blankets). Another guess would be that residuals in the one of the maneuvering fuel tanks went off and took out part of the skin and the hydraulics. Or, since this was Columbia's second flight since a major overhaul (I saw its 1st flight afterwards, last March) there could have been something unexpected that was related to the upgrades. Probably not software, this time.
I'd shaken hands once with McCool (recalled in part because I thought of "Peanuts" after I saw his name plate), and remember seeing the Indian lady in the halls of Bldg. 4S. Despite the Israeli presence, I *really* doubt terrorism... there were special security and screening measures for this flight, because of that. Timing devices would have been hard to pinpoint, and pressure-triggered devices wouldn't work reliably, either.
It's a terrible tragedy... as![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
wcg said in a comment, a bad day for the good guys. But I would go in a heartbeat, nonetheless, and will resubmit my application at the next call.
My advice to stressed-out folks... turn off the TV. Keep things in perspective... they were volunteers and loved what they were doing. It was a known set of risks. And, as bad at it is... seven lives, compared to hundreds in a commercial airline crash -- which is worse? Really? Shuttles are expensive at $2B/copy, but roughly the same as a B-2 bomber. If a military flight had gone down with its crew, it would be just as tragic for them and their families.
Internal to NASA, there has been a debate over the past several years over the operational lifespan of the current shuttle. They were built in the late 1970s, except for Endeavor. Airliners of the same vintage are being retired now. Over the past two years, I've seen plans calling for shuttle replacement as early as 2007 and as long as 2025. And for the past two or three years, there's been a sense that the law of averages was overdue... over drinks after hours, we'd wonder how much longer we'd go without another major accident. Unofficially, of course... public estimates are of an accident every 80 flights or so. Some argue 1 in 50. In either case, we were over 100 missions with one accident, coming into this one. And operations budgets have been squeezed...
Personally, I've been in favor of proceeding with a next-generation shuttle replacement... but it costs $10B to design a new airliner, double that for a launch vehicle. Space has not been a budget priority, and what there is has gone towards finishing the station. Hence the talk of trying to fly elderly shuttles until 2020. But I think this disaster may force some degree of realism on the folks in DC... the next few months should tell. Sigh.
Looking at the camera footage, there's a disturbance, separation of a large chunk, followed by turbulence and then everything coming apart. The breakup appears to follow a loss of flight controls, presumably due to the initial event. Lots of possibilities for that event. My leading guesses are the failure of a wing or vertical stabilizer due to fatigue (it is 20+ years old, after all... few cycles, but high-stress ones) or overheating (burn-through of the thermal protection tiles or blankets). Another guess would be that residuals in the one of the maneuvering fuel tanks went off and took out part of the skin and the hydraulics. Or, since this was Columbia's second flight since a major overhaul (I saw its 1st flight afterwards, last March) there could have been something unexpected that was related to the upgrades. Probably not software, this time.
I'd shaken hands once with McCool (recalled in part because I thought of "Peanuts" after I saw his name plate), and remember seeing the Indian lady in the halls of Bldg. 4S. Despite the Israeli presence, I *really* doubt terrorism... there were special security and screening measures for this flight, because of that. Timing devices would have been hard to pinpoint, and pressure-triggered devices wouldn't work reliably, either.
It's a terrible tragedy... as
wcg said in a comment, a bad day for the good guys. But I would go in a heartbeat, nonetheless, and will resubmit my application at the next call. My advice to stressed-out folks... turn off the TV. Keep things in perspective... they were volunteers and loved what they were doing. It was a known set of risks. And, as bad at it is... seven lives, compared to hundreds in a commercial airline crash -- which is worse? Really? Shuttles are expensive at $2B/copy, but roughly the same as a B-2 bomber. If a military flight had gone down with its crew, it would be just as tragic for them and their families.
Internal to NASA, there has been a debate over the past several years over the operational lifespan of the current shuttle. They were built in the late 1970s, except for Endeavor. Airliners of the same vintage are being retired now. Over the past two years, I've seen plans calling for shuttle replacement as early as 2007 and as long as 2025. And for the past two or three years, there's been a sense that the law of averages was overdue... over drinks after hours, we'd wonder how much longer we'd go without another major accident. Unofficially, of course... public estimates are of an accident every 80 flights or so. Some argue 1 in 50. In either case, we were over 100 missions with one accident, coming into this one. And operations budgets have been squeezed...
Personally, I've been in favor of proceeding with a next-generation shuttle replacement... but it costs $10B to design a new airliner, double that for a launch vehicle. Space has not been a budget priority, and what there is has gone towards finishing the station. Hence the talk of trying to fly elderly shuttles until 2020. But I think this disaster may force some degree of realism on the folks in DC... the next few months should tell. Sigh.
hunkering-down toast
Feb. 1st, 2003 05:49 pmThanks for the words of support... interestingly, there has been absolutely no NASA-internal email today, just some spam on Russian mail-order brides.
I tried to go on with life as usual today... ice skating lessons for the kids, Little League tryouts, odd jobs around the house. Tonight I was going to make a nice dinner for Pat and then take her out. I just can't motivate myself to go out and make happy. Maybe staying home and consuming several apple martinis would be in order (not Scotch, after last week). Almost a wake. Sigh. Grr.
Thing is, we have technology that could detect and react to TPS (thermal protection) failures... or spherical space-deployable micro-rovers with cameras... or flexible thermal blankets that could be EVA-deployed from spacesuits. I work on the first, the second is in the lab across from my office and I've seen the third. But they apparently brought neither a spacesuit nor docking port on this flight... and there has been not enough funding to bring any of these technologies to flight test. The first technology was slated to fly on X-34 -- until it was cancelled because of tight budgets. There's a flyable X-34 today.
(shakes head) it is all so frustrating, sometimes. Time tonight to hunker down and pour one tonight... then start pushing on program management on Monday. And applyng a cluebrick to a couple of nameless entities...
(glass into fireplace)
I tried to go on with life as usual today... ice skating lessons for the kids, Little League tryouts, odd jobs around the house. Tonight I was going to make a nice dinner for Pat and then take her out. I just can't motivate myself to go out and make happy. Maybe staying home and consuming several apple martinis would be in order (not Scotch, after last week). Almost a wake. Sigh. Grr.
Thing is, we have technology that could detect and react to TPS (thermal protection) failures... or spherical space-deployable micro-rovers with cameras... or flexible thermal blankets that could be EVA-deployed from spacesuits. I work on the first, the second is in the lab across from my office and I've seen the third. But they apparently brought neither a spacesuit nor docking port on this flight... and there has been not enough funding to bring any of these technologies to flight test. The first technology was slated to fly on X-34 -- until it was cancelled because of tight budgets. There's a flyable X-34 today.
(shakes head) it is all so frustrating, sometimes. Time tonight to hunker down and pour one tonight... then start pushing on program management on Monday. And applyng a cluebrick to a couple of nameless entities...
(glass into fireplace)
Looking into the sunny, early spring sky today, trying to not think of the endless video footage... I looked up, focussed and saw that the pear tree hanging over my house is in full blossom.
And today my six-year-old son left his training wheels behind, riding his bicycle :-). Whoosh!
And today my six-year-old son left his training wheels behind, riding his bicycle :-). Whoosh!